ADT stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• ADT shares have climbed roughly +61.6% over the trailing 30 days, from a close near $6.14 on September 29, 2026, to about $9.92 intraday on October 29, 2026.
• The move was driven almost entirely by a definitive agreement for Thrive Holdings, an affiliate of Josh Kushner's Thrive Capital, to acquire ADT for $10.00 per share in cash.
• The $10.00 per-share price represents a 45.6% premium to ADT's unaffected closing price of $6.87 on October 27, 2026, and a 52.1% premium to its 30-day volume-weighted average price ending that date.
• The all-cash transaction values ADT at approximately $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value.
• Financing is being provided solely by funds managed by Apollo Global Management affiliates, and the deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
• ADT's third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for release on November 3, 2026.
• For additional context on ADT's valuation and outlook, explore its Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
• Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-powered trading systems are currently positioning across the market.

ADT Inc. (ADT) Company Overview and Market Position

ADT Inc. is a leading U.S. provider of security, interactive, and smart home solutions serving residential and small business customers. Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, the company generates recurring revenue through monthly monitoring subscriptions and offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, video surveillance, smart home automation, and personal emergency response systems. ADT operates the largest network of smart home security professionals in the country and has built strategic relationships with technology and insurance partners, including Google (GOOGL) and State Farm. Investors have long followed the stock for its durable subscription base, cash flow generation, and ongoing technology transition toward cloud and AI-driven offerings.

ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter

Over the last 30 days, ADT has risen approximately +61.6%, from a closing price of $6.14 on September 29, 2026, to about $9.92 during trading on October 29, 2026. Nearly all of that advance occurred in the final two sessions after acquisition reports emerged: shares closed at $6.87 on October 27, then jumped about 7.9% to $7.41 on October 28 before spiking roughly another 33.9% intraday on October 29 following the formal announcement.

The picture over the last quarter is more nuanced. Three months earlier, ADT closed near $7.41 on July 29, 2026. The stock reached a period high around $7.88 in early August before drifting lower through September to a multi-month low near $6.14 on September 29. A gradual recovery brought shares back to $6.87 by October 27, leaving the stock modestly lower for the quarter before the acquisition news. Including the subsequent surge, ADT finished the rolling quarter up roughly +33.9%, but essentially all of that gain reflects the takeover premium rather than an underlying re-rating of the business.

What Drove ADT Stock Price in the Last 30 Days

The dominant catalyst was M&A. On October 28, 2026, a report from Octus indicated that Josh Kushner's Thrive Capital was in talks to take ADT private, potentially backed by a large private credit loan. The shares rose about 7.9% that session. On October 29, ADT and Thrive Holdings announced a definitive agreement under which Thrive Holdings would acquire the company for $10.00 per share in cash, sending the stock toward that level.

The deal, unanimously approved by ADT's board, implies roughly $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value. Financing commitments come solely from funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management (APO), ADT's former owner. RBC Capital, which holds a Sector Perform rating on ADT, had described the company as an "interesting" take-private candidate, citing its business transformation and accelerating free cash flow growth, while also noting competitive pressures from DIY providers and AI-related concerns. ADT said its third-quarter 2026 results will be released on November 3, 2026, before the market opens.

What Drove ADT Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter

For most of the quarter, ADT traded without a clear directional catalyst. The stock softened from its early-August high near $7.88 as investors weighed a technology transition that includes migration to Google Cloud, integration of AI capabilities, and a strategic shift away from costly customer-acquisition channels. Analysts noted that this pivot has weighed on revenue growth, while recurring-customer trends and competition from do-it-yourself security providers kept sentiment cautious. The narrative shifted decisively only in late October, when the take-private reports and subsequent definitive agreement reframed the investment case around a cash exit rather than operating fundamentals. The transaction also marks ADT's second take-private in a decade: Apollo took the company private in 2016 before relisting it on the NYSE in 2018.

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ADT Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next

The primary variable for ADT shareholders is the completion of the Thrive Holdings transaction. The merger remains subject to approval by ADT stockholders and receipt of U.S. antitrust approval, with closing expected in the first quarter of 2027. Under the agreement, ADT may solicit competing proposals during a "go-shop" period running through November 28, 2026, with a potential 10-day extension for certain parties, and may terminate the deal to accept a superior offer. Investors will also monitor ADT's third-quarter 2026 results on November 3, 2026, though the company has said it will not take questions on the call in light of the announced transaction. Upon closing, ADT is expected to become privately held and its common stock will cease trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Disclaimer

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